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<p>The widely used incompatible insect technique based on <i>Wolbachia</i> for the control of mosquito-borne diseases might be limited in field since high temperature has an adverse effect on some <i>Wolbachia</i>, which reduces its density in mosquitoes and induces incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) when the larval habitats experience large temperature fluctuations. By analyzing a model of delay differential equations, we identify a threshold CI intensity, below which the infected male release would not reduce but instead increase the stable adult population level, a phenomenon called suppression paradox, which caused by the overcompensation effect of adult mosquitoes increasing when larval density decreases. For <i>Aedes albopictus</i> mosquitoes in Guangzhou, our simulations predict that paradox would occur if CI intensity is no more than 0.6094. Besides, to reduce at least <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(80\%\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>80</mn> <mo>%</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> of the wild adult mosquitoes in the peak season within 8 weeks, we find that the CI intensity should be no less than 0.96, and the least release ratio is sensitive to the CI intensity.</p>

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Dynamics and suppression paradox of a stage-structured model for mosquito control

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月3日

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  • Mugen Huang,
  • Zixin Nie

摘要

The widely used incompatible insect technique based on Wolbachia for the control of mosquito-borne diseases might be limited in field since high temperature has an adverse effect on some Wolbachia, which reduces its density in mosquitoes and induces incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) when the larval habitats experience large temperature fluctuations. By analyzing a model of delay differential equations, we identify a threshold CI intensity, below which the infected male release would not reduce but instead increase the stable adult population level, a phenomenon called suppression paradox, which caused by the overcompensation effect of adult mosquitoes increasing when larval density decreases. For Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in Guangzhou, our simulations predict that paradox would occur if CI intensity is no more than 0.6094. Besides, to reduce at least \(80\%\) 80 % of the wild adult mosquitoes in the peak season within 8 weeks, we find that the CI intensity should be no less than 0.96, and the least release ratio is sensitive to the CI intensity.