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<p>Against the backdrop of continued population growth and intensifying climate change, water scarcity is expected to further deteriorate. Farmland fallowing, as an effective agricultural water-saving measure, has been adopted by many countries as a long-term agricultural policy. Taking the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as the study area, this study constructed an estimation framework for water savings from farmland fallowing (FLWC) under the dual constraints of ecological security and food security. First, a farmland demand model combined with GIS technology was used to delineate suitable fallow areas. Second, within these areas, the main crops—winter wheat, cotton, and maize—were selected, and the FAO-recommended Penman–Monteith model was applied to estimate FLWC. Finally, a random forest model was employed to identify the response relationships between climatic factors and FLWC. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the suitable fallow area in the TRB exhibited a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, peaking in 2015 at 15,255.4&#xa0;km² (37.42%), mainly distributed in the marginal zones of farmland. (2) The FLWC of winter wheat, cotton, and maize differed significantly across growth stages. For all crops, FLWC was relatively low during the initial and late stages, but higher during the developing and middle stages. Spatially, FLWC generally increased from the basin periphery toward the central areas. The total FLWC of winter wheat and cotton showed a pattern of first rising and then declining, reaching peaks in 2015 at 1.01 × 10⁹ m³ and 5 × 10⁹ m³, respectively, while maize peaked in 2020 at 3.12 × 10⁷ m³. The overall FLWC was most significant in 2015, totaling 6.03 × 10⁹ m³. Cotton exhibited the greatest water-saving potential, followed by winter wheat and maize. (3) Mean air temperature (Atmp) was the primary driving factor for winter wheat and maize, exerting a positive effect on FLWC, whereas mean relative humidity (Arhu) was the main limiting factor for cotton, showing a negative effect on FLWC. The effects of these climatic factors generally exhibited threshold behaviors and interannual variability, indicating complex nonlinear responses of different crops’ FLWC to meteorological conditions. These findings provide important implications for the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources and food security in the TRB.</p>

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Estimation of water savings from farmland fallowing in the tarim river basin under food security and ecological security constraints and threshold effects of driving factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月14日

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  • Liqiang Shen,
  • Jiaxin Hao,
  • Chenglong Yao,
  • Xinyu Du,
  • Zengyi Cheng,
  • Yuejian Wang,
  • Fulong Chen

摘要

Against the backdrop of continued population growth and intensifying climate change, water scarcity is expected to further deteriorate. Farmland fallowing, as an effective agricultural water-saving measure, has been adopted by many countries as a long-term agricultural policy. Taking the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as the study area, this study constructed an estimation framework for water savings from farmland fallowing (FLWC) under the dual constraints of ecological security and food security. First, a farmland demand model combined with GIS technology was used to delineate suitable fallow areas. Second, within these areas, the main crops—winter wheat, cotton, and maize—were selected, and the FAO-recommended Penman–Monteith model was applied to estimate FLWC. Finally, a random forest model was employed to identify the response relationships between climatic factors and FLWC. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the suitable fallow area in the TRB exhibited a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, peaking in 2015 at 15,255.4 km² (37.42%), mainly distributed in the marginal zones of farmland. (2) The FLWC of winter wheat, cotton, and maize differed significantly across growth stages. For all crops, FLWC was relatively low during the initial and late stages, but higher during the developing and middle stages. Spatially, FLWC generally increased from the basin periphery toward the central areas. The total FLWC of winter wheat and cotton showed a pattern of first rising and then declining, reaching peaks in 2015 at 1.01 × 10⁹ m³ and 5 × 10⁹ m³, respectively, while maize peaked in 2020 at 3.12 × 10⁷ m³. The overall FLWC was most significant in 2015, totaling 6.03 × 10⁹ m³. Cotton exhibited the greatest water-saving potential, followed by winter wheat and maize. (3) Mean air temperature (Atmp) was the primary driving factor for winter wheat and maize, exerting a positive effect on FLWC, whereas mean relative humidity (Arhu) was the main limiting factor for cotton, showing a negative effect on FLWC. The effects of these climatic factors generally exhibited threshold behaviors and interannual variability, indicating complex nonlinear responses of different crops’ FLWC to meteorological conditions. These findings provide important implications for the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources and food security in the TRB.