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<p>Foundation species occurring at their warm range edges are vulnerable to climate extremes. Whether non-recovery reflects a loss of intrinsic resilience or altered environmental conditions can be hard to disentangle. This study integrates local ecological knowledge, literature, multidecadal subtidal monitoring datasets (1998–2005, 2016–2025), and remote sensing to document range dynamics of giant kelp (<i>Macrocystis pyrifera</i>) at its warm-range edge in Mexico. Field surveys conducted in July 2025 established the current warm-range edge, from isolated individuals at 27.11°N through patches at 27.53°N to extensive forests at 27.86°N —a ~ 400&#xa0;km northward contraction of <i>M. pyrifera</i> forests since the early 20th century. Additionally, contrasting recovery outcomes at Isla San Roque (27.15°N) following two major warming events were documented. After the 1997–98 El Niño, <i>M. pyrifera</i> forests recovered from 0.0 to 8.3 ± 2.7 stipes m⁻² by 2000, when favorable thermal conditions returned. However, following the 2014–16 marine heatwaves, forests have not recovered through 2025. This collapse is consistent with a climate-driven regime shift where recurrent thermal stress eliminated recovery windows. Concurrently, the warm-water tolerant southern palm kelp (<i>Eisenia arborea</i>) increased 1.6-fold, replacing <i>M. pyrifera</i> as the primary foundation species. Findings propose that climate-driven regime shifts can eliminate recovery capabilities at warm-range edges, creating alternative stable states maintained by elevated temperature baselines and perhaps competitive exclusion. This suggests restoration may require a multifaceted approach addressing thermal conditions, biotic resistance, and other social-ecological factors interacting in those complex systems.</p>

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Climate-driven regime shift associated with range contraction at warm range edge of Macrocystis pyrifera forests

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月8日

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  • Marisol Atela,
  • Jeremie Bauer,
  • Rodrigo Beas-Luna,
  • Alicia Abadía-Cardoso,
  • Mark H. Carr,
  • Dillon Dolinar,
  • Matthew S. Edwards,
  • Luis Malpica-Cruz,
  • Nemer E. Narchi,
  • Kyle Cavanaugh,
  • Julio Lorda

摘要

Foundation species occurring at their warm range edges are vulnerable to climate extremes. Whether non-recovery reflects a loss of intrinsic resilience or altered environmental conditions can be hard to disentangle. This study integrates local ecological knowledge, literature, multidecadal subtidal monitoring datasets (1998–2005, 2016–2025), and remote sensing to document range dynamics of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) at its warm-range edge in Mexico. Field surveys conducted in July 2025 established the current warm-range edge, from isolated individuals at 27.11°N through patches at 27.53°N to extensive forests at 27.86°N —a ~ 400 km northward contraction of M. pyrifera forests since the early 20th century. Additionally, contrasting recovery outcomes at Isla San Roque (27.15°N) following two major warming events were documented. After the 1997–98 El Niño, M. pyrifera forests recovered from 0.0 to 8.3 ± 2.7 stipes m⁻² by 2000, when favorable thermal conditions returned. However, following the 2014–16 marine heatwaves, forests have not recovered through 2025. This collapse is consistent with a climate-driven regime shift where recurrent thermal stress eliminated recovery windows. Concurrently, the warm-water tolerant southern palm kelp (Eisenia arborea) increased 1.6-fold, replacing M. pyrifera as the primary foundation species. Findings propose that climate-driven regime shifts can eliminate recovery capabilities at warm-range edges, creating alternative stable states maintained by elevated temperature baselines and perhaps competitive exclusion. This suggests restoration may require a multifaceted approach addressing thermal conditions, biotic resistance, and other social-ecological factors interacting in those complex systems.