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<p>We axiomatize subjective probabilities on finite domains without requiring richness in the outcome space or restrictions on risk preference through event exchangeability, defined in Chew and Sagi (Econometrica, 74:771–786, 2006), which was implicit in the prior literature (Savage in The Foundations of Statistics, Weily, NewYork, 1954; Machina and Schmeidler in Econometrica, 60:745–780, 1992; Grant in Econometrica, 63:159–189, 1995). We characterize the unique subjective probability representing the underlying exchangeability relation and apply this subjective probability to characterize finite-state probabilistic sophistication.</p>

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An exchangeability-based finite-state axiomatization of subjective probability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月7日

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  • Soo Hong Chew,
  • Jacob S. Sagi,
  • Wenqian Wang

摘要

We axiomatize subjective probabilities on finite domains without requiring richness in the outcome space or restrictions on risk preference through event exchangeability, defined in Chew and Sagi (Econometrica, 74:771–786, 2006), which was implicit in the prior literature (Savage in The Foundations of Statistics, Weily, NewYork, 1954; Machina and Schmeidler in Econometrica, 60:745–780, 1992; Grant in Econometrica, 63:159–189, 1995). We characterize the unique subjective probability representing the underlying exchangeability relation and apply this subjective probability to characterize finite-state probabilistic sophistication.