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<p>This paper examines the non-linear effects of trade openness on economic growth in the five Maghreb countries—Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Mauritania—from 1990 to 2021, using the Panel Smooth Transition Autoregression (PSTAR) model. Although several models explain non-linear effects, this article distinguishes itself by focusing on the PSTAR approach, which more accurately captures the dynamics of non-linear transitions in economic relationships. By incorporating structural changes and distinct regimes, this method offers a more nuanced analysis of the effects of trade openness on economic growth. The results confirm the trade-led growth (TLG) hypothesis, but this relationship is only significant when trade openness exceeds a threshold of 98.145%. Causality tests support this finding, highlighting the need for improvements in trade infrastructure and diversification among trading partners. Furthermore, promoting comprehensive politico-economic integration among union members helps the AMU overcome its structural limitations and rationalize the substantial benefits of trade openness with the rest of the world.</p>

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Non-linear impact of trade openness on Arab Maghreb Union economic growth: Empirical evidence from the PSTAR approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月22日

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  • Mariem Bouattour,
  • Salem Kanoun,
  • Kamel Helali

摘要

This paper examines the non-linear effects of trade openness on economic growth in the five Maghreb countries—Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Mauritania—from 1990 to 2021, using the Panel Smooth Transition Autoregression (PSTAR) model. Although several models explain non-linear effects, this article distinguishes itself by focusing on the PSTAR approach, which more accurately captures the dynamics of non-linear transitions in economic relationships. By incorporating structural changes and distinct regimes, this method offers a more nuanced analysis of the effects of trade openness on economic growth. The results confirm the trade-led growth (TLG) hypothesis, but this relationship is only significant when trade openness exceeds a threshold of 98.145%. Causality tests support this finding, highlighting the need for improvements in trade infrastructure and diversification among trading partners. Furthermore, promoting comprehensive politico-economic integration among union members helps the AMU overcome its structural limitations and rationalize the substantial benefits of trade openness with the rest of the world.