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<p>Over the last decade, numerous economists have argued that firm-level idiosyncratic productivity shocks can generate much of the observed aggregate volatility if firms are placed on a production network. We test this hypothesis using granular data on buyer–seller relationships between a large number of firms in the United States. Our estimates suggest that firm-level shocks generate about a tenth of the empirically observed aggregate volatility. Though the network mechanism is capable of amplifying firm-level shocks, the numerical values of the structural properties that generate this amplification do not prove to be sufficient.</p>

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Do granular shocks generate sizeable aggregate volatility?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月1日

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  • Antoine Mandel,
  • Vipin P. Veetil

摘要

Over the last decade, numerous economists have argued that firm-level idiosyncratic productivity shocks can generate much of the observed aggregate volatility if firms are placed on a production network. We test this hypothesis using granular data on buyer–seller relationships between a large number of firms in the United States. Our estimates suggest that firm-level shocks generate about a tenth of the empirically observed aggregate volatility. Though the network mechanism is capable of amplifying firm-level shocks, the numerical values of the structural properties that generate this amplification do not prove to be sufficient.