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<p>In the context of a structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR model, we investigate the effects of monetary uncertainty on unemployment rates by race and ethnicity in the United States. We find that monetary uncertainty tends to increase unemployment across all levels, with the magnitude of the effect being much larger for Black and Hispanic workers than for their White counterparts. Using impulse response analysis, we also provide evidence that a negative real money supply shock tends to dampen employment across all levels (race and different age cohorts based on gender). We find that in the prime working age group of 25–54 years, the female unemployment rate typically reacts more strongly to shocks involving uncertainty in the real money supply than do male unemployment rates. We also find that for both males and females, the youngest and inexperienced workers are the ones who suffer the most from volatility in the real money supply. We find that monetary uncertainty not only increases unemployment but also exacerbates age, gender, and racial employment disparities.</p>

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Monetary uncertainty and the labor market in the United States

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月16日

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  • Nahiyan Faisal Azad,
  • Apostolos Serletis

摘要

In the context of a structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR model, we investigate the effects of monetary uncertainty on unemployment rates by race and ethnicity in the United States. We find that monetary uncertainty tends to increase unemployment across all levels, with the magnitude of the effect being much larger for Black and Hispanic workers than for their White counterparts. Using impulse response analysis, we also provide evidence that a negative real money supply shock tends to dampen employment across all levels (race and different age cohorts based on gender). We find that in the prime working age group of 25–54 years, the female unemployment rate typically reacts more strongly to shocks involving uncertainty in the real money supply than do male unemployment rates. We also find that for both males and females, the youngest and inexperienced workers are the ones who suffer the most from volatility in the real money supply. We find that monetary uncertainty not only increases unemployment but also exacerbates age, gender, and racial employment disparities.