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<p>While existing literature often focuses on average treatment effects, there is limited understanding of how uniform policy measures, such as raising the compulsory education age, impact very specific subgroups of students. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the heterogeneous effects of a compulsory education age reform on school dropout rates. Using rich administrative microdata from Statistics Netherlands, we apply a causal forest model to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), revealing how the impact of a policy varies across individual and school characteristics. Our results show an average reduction of about 1 percentage point in dropout rates attributable to the reform, with significant heterogeneity; approximately 20% of the estimated CATEs indicate statistically significant effects up to 6.3 percentage points. Vocational track students emerge as the most responsive group, with parental characteristics, household composition, and school progress further influencing outcomes. Moreover, we find that only specific groups of at-risk students are influenced by the policy reform, suggesting that a single policy may not address the needs of all students. The analysis advocates the need for complementary policies to better address diverse student needs.</p>

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The heterogeneous treatment effects of compulsory education age reforms: a causal forest approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月19日

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  • Hannelore Nelissen,
  • Kristof De Witte

摘要

While existing literature often focuses on average treatment effects, there is limited understanding of how uniform policy measures, such as raising the compulsory education age, impact very specific subgroups of students. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the heterogeneous effects of a compulsory education age reform on school dropout rates. Using rich administrative microdata from Statistics Netherlands, we apply a causal forest model to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), revealing how the impact of a policy varies across individual and school characteristics. Our results show an average reduction of about 1 percentage point in dropout rates attributable to the reform, with significant heterogeneity; approximately 20% of the estimated CATEs indicate statistically significant effects up to 6.3 percentage points. Vocational track students emerge as the most responsive group, with parental characteristics, household composition, and school progress further influencing outcomes. Moreover, we find that only specific groups of at-risk students are influenced by the policy reform, suggesting that a single policy may not address the needs of all students. The analysis advocates the need for complementary policies to better address diverse student needs.