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<p>This paper analyses the effects of shocks to assessment among firms, measured by the global and local Producer Manager Index (PMI), on the economic activity in the manufacturing sector. We use monthly data from twenty countries over the period 2007–2022 and estimate an interacted panel VAR model, where the response of domestic industrial production to global and local PMI shocks depends on the country’s position in the global value chain (GVC). We find that countries located most upstream in the GVC are most strongly affected by shocks to domestic PMI. Surprisingly, the response to global PMI shocks is similar across the analysed economies.</p>

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The role of global value chains for the propagation of global and domestic PMI shocks

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月17日

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  • Andrzej Torój,
  • Joscha Beckmann,
  • Michał Rubaszek

摘要

This paper analyses the effects of shocks to assessment among firms, measured by the global and local Producer Manager Index (PMI), on the economic activity in the manufacturing sector. We use monthly data from twenty countries over the period 2007–2022 and estimate an interacted panel VAR model, where the response of domestic industrial production to global and local PMI shocks depends on the country’s position in the global value chain (GVC). We find that countries located most upstream in the GVC are most strongly affected by shocks to domestic PMI. Surprisingly, the response to global PMI shocks is similar across the analysed economies.