<p>We estimate conditional quantiles of unemployment duration, using a method for interval-censored quantile regression. We apply a modeling approach in which the regression coefficients, <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\varvec{\beta }(p)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="bold-italic">β</mi> </mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>p</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, are described by parametric functions. Compared with standard quantile regression, in which quantiles are calculated one at a time, the proposed method drastically simplifies estimation and inference and makes it simpler to report and interpret the results. We discuss goodness-of-fit measures, present a simulation study, and describe the R package <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\texttt {qrcm}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi mathvariant="monospace">qrcm</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> that provides the necessary functions for estimation, inference, and prediction. Our results show that age, education, and other individual and household-level covariates significantly affect unemployment duration. While the estimated effects generally align with the existing literature, most predictors exhibit heterogeneous effects across quantiles, suggesting a complexity that standard location-scale or proportional hazards models may fail to capture.</p>

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Using parametric quantile regression to investigate determinants of unemployment duration

  • Lorenzo Corsini,
  • Paolo Dyno Frumento

摘要

We estimate conditional quantiles of unemployment duration, using a method for interval-censored quantile regression. We apply a modeling approach in which the regression coefficients, \(\varvec{\beta }(p)\) β ( p ) , are described by parametric functions. Compared with standard quantile regression, in which quantiles are calculated one at a time, the proposed method drastically simplifies estimation and inference and makes it simpler to report and interpret the results. We discuss goodness-of-fit measures, present a simulation study, and describe the R package \(\texttt {qrcm}\) qrcm that provides the necessary functions for estimation, inference, and prediction. Our results show that age, education, and other individual and household-level covariates significantly affect unemployment duration. While the estimated effects generally align with the existing literature, most predictors exhibit heterogeneous effects across quantiles, suggesting a complexity that standard location-scale or proportional hazards models may fail to capture.