<p>Using panel data of actual consumption and saving, this study investigated whether the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 changed household preference parameters in the life-cycle consumption model. We introduce heterogeneous preference parameters into the model and estimate parameters using the modified version of the existing measurement-error-robust approach. We find that households located in places with low risk of future earthquakes tended to become risk averse. Households located in places with high future earthquake risk or very close to a nuclear power plant became risk tolerant when they experienced an earthquake with higher seismic intensity. These findings suggest that the direction and extent of the effects is heterogeneous; this implies that further analysis based on a more classified population is necessary for a sophisticated understanding of household behavior after disasters. Investigating counterfactual consumption had the earthquake not occurred shows that the consumption predictions based on the updated preference parameters yield more precise predictions in most cases. Thus, policymakers should consider the changes in preferences after a large-scale disaster when implementing and evaluating post-disaster policies.</p>

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Preference parameter changes: evidence from household consumption and savings

  • Masamune Iwasawa,
  • Hayato Nakanishi

摘要

Using panel data of actual consumption and saving, this study investigated whether the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 changed household preference parameters in the life-cycle consumption model. We introduce heterogeneous preference parameters into the model and estimate parameters using the modified version of the existing measurement-error-robust approach. We find that households located in places with low risk of future earthquakes tended to become risk averse. Households located in places with high future earthquake risk or very close to a nuclear power plant became risk tolerant when they experienced an earthquake with higher seismic intensity. These findings suggest that the direction and extent of the effects is heterogeneous; this implies that further analysis based on a more classified population is necessary for a sophisticated understanding of household behavior after disasters. Investigating counterfactual consumption had the earthquake not occurred shows that the consumption predictions based on the updated preference parameters yield more precise predictions in most cases. Thus, policymakers should consider the changes in preferences after a large-scale disaster when implementing and evaluating post-disaster policies.