<p>This paper investigates how US business sentiment responds to structural oil shocks and whether its behavior varies across different levels of economic uncertainty. To this end, I decompose unpredictable oil price changes into supply and demand shocks and estimate their effects on US business sentiment using the local projection method. The results indicate that the response of business sentiment depends significantly on the underlying sources of oil price fluctuations: Oil supply shocks lead to a gradual decline, whereas economic activity and oil consumption demand shocks result in a temporary increase. Moreover, the impacts of structural oil shocks are highly dependent on the level of uncertainty. High levels of uncertainty substantially dampen the positive effects while amplifying the negative ones. I also explore the potential asymmetric effects of positive and negative structural oil shocks and find that these effects depend critically on uncertainty regimes. These findings have important implications for monetary and fiscal policymakers in designing appropriate policy responses to oil price shocks.</p>

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Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on US business sentiment: evidence from the ISM manufacturing index

  • Dohyoung Kwon

摘要

This paper investigates how US business sentiment responds to structural oil shocks and whether its behavior varies across different levels of economic uncertainty. To this end, I decompose unpredictable oil price changes into supply and demand shocks and estimate their effects on US business sentiment using the local projection method. The results indicate that the response of business sentiment depends significantly on the underlying sources of oil price fluctuations: Oil supply shocks lead to a gradual decline, whereas economic activity and oil consumption demand shocks result in a temporary increase. Moreover, the impacts of structural oil shocks are highly dependent on the level of uncertainty. High levels of uncertainty substantially dampen the positive effects while amplifying the negative ones. I also explore the potential asymmetric effects of positive and negative structural oil shocks and find that these effects depend critically on uncertainty regimes. These findings have important implications for monetary and fiscal policymakers in designing appropriate policy responses to oil price shocks.