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<p>We evaluate the robustness of the regional Kuznets curve using the Bayesian average of classical estimates for panel data and identify the robust determinants of regional inequality. Our simulation exercise suggests that this method recovers the variables underlying the true data generating process. Our results indicate that in addition to real GDP per capita, linear and quadratic, the most robust determinants of regional inequality are natural resource rents, arable land and ethnic inequality. We find an inverted-U-shaped relationship between regional inequality and national development in the range of USD 189 to USD 71,682. Beyond this threshold, there is evidence suggesting inequality stabilization.</p>

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Bayesian average of classical estimates for panel data: Can the puzzle of the shape of the regional Kuznets curve be solved?

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月5日

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  • Andrés Ramírez-Hassan,
  • Carlos Mendez,
  • Estephania Rueda-Ramírez

摘要

We evaluate the robustness of the regional Kuznets curve using the Bayesian average of classical estimates for panel data and identify the robust determinants of regional inequality. Our simulation exercise suggests that this method recovers the variables underlying the true data generating process. Our results indicate that in addition to real GDP per capita, linear and quadratic, the most robust determinants of regional inequality are natural resource rents, arable land and ethnic inequality. We find an inverted-U-shaped relationship between regional inequality and national development in the range of USD 189 to USD 71,682. Beyond this threshold, there is evidence suggesting inequality stabilization.