<p>This paper introduces a novel perspective on homeownership decisions, focusing on the interplay between house price covariance and socio-economic distance. Through a spatial equilibrium model with tenure choice, we highlight how high house price covariance, indicative of reduced socio-economic distance, increases migrants’ likelihood of homeownership in their destination cities by reducing associated uncertainties. Utilizing the Census data of China, we demonstrate that migrants, especially those with higher education and income levels, are more likely to own homes when there is a greater covariance in house prices between their origin and destination cities. This trend is closely linked to the reduced uncertainty stemming from socio-economic similarities. We then introduce a new socio-economic distance metric to capture similarities across Chinese cities and find a negative correlation between this metric and house price covariance. Our results indicate that migrants prefer homeownership in cities that are socio-economically closer to their origins, with this preference being particularly pronounced among the highly educated due to the reduced uncertainties linked to housing price covariance. This paper offers critical insights into the determinants of migrant homeownership, underscoring the importance of housing market dynamics and socio-economic proximity.</p>

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Beyond geography: house price covariance and socio-economic distance in homeownership decisions

  • Xintong Yang,
  • Yichen Gao,
  • Qi Li

摘要

This paper introduces a novel perspective on homeownership decisions, focusing on the interplay between house price covariance and socio-economic distance. Through a spatial equilibrium model with tenure choice, we highlight how high house price covariance, indicative of reduced socio-economic distance, increases migrants’ likelihood of homeownership in their destination cities by reducing associated uncertainties. Utilizing the Census data of China, we demonstrate that migrants, especially those with higher education and income levels, are more likely to own homes when there is a greater covariance in house prices between their origin and destination cities. This trend is closely linked to the reduced uncertainty stemming from socio-economic similarities. We then introduce a new socio-economic distance metric to capture similarities across Chinese cities and find a negative correlation between this metric and house price covariance. Our results indicate that migrants prefer homeownership in cities that are socio-economically closer to their origins, with this preference being particularly pronounced among the highly educated due to the reduced uncertainties linked to housing price covariance. This paper offers critical insights into the determinants of migrant homeownership, underscoring the importance of housing market dynamics and socio-economic proximity.