<p>Improper priors are not allowed for the computation of the Bayesian evidence <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="180_2025_1641_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="19" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="67" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(Z=p(\textbf{y})\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> (a.k.a., marginal likelihood), since in this case <i>Z</i> is not completely specified due to an arbitrary constant involved in the computation. However, in this work, we remark that they can be employed in a specific type of model selection problem: when we have several (possibly infinite) models belonging to the same parametric family (i.e., for tuning parameters of a parametric model). However, the quantities involved in this type of selection cannot be considered as Bayesian evidences: we suggest to use the name “fake evidences” (or “areas under the likelihood” in the case of uniform improper priors). We also show that, in this model selection scenario, using a diffuse prior and increasing its scale parameter asymptotically to infinity, we cannot recover the value of the area under the likelihood, obtained with a uniform improper prior. We first discuss it from a general point of view. Then we provide, as an applicative example, all the details for Bayesian regression models with nonlinear bases, considering two cases: the use of a uniform improper prior and the use of a Gaussian prior, respectively.</p>

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A note on the area under the likelihood and the fake evidence for model selection

  • L. Martino,
  • F. Llorente

摘要

Improper priors are not allowed for the computation of the Bayesian evidence \(Z=p(\textbf{y})\) (a.k.a., marginal likelihood), since in this case Z is not completely specified due to an arbitrary constant involved in the computation. However, in this work, we remark that they can be employed in a specific type of model selection problem: when we have several (possibly infinite) models belonging to the same parametric family (i.e., for tuning parameters of a parametric model). However, the quantities involved in this type of selection cannot be considered as Bayesian evidences: we suggest to use the name “fake evidences” (or “areas under the likelihood” in the case of uniform improper priors). We also show that, in this model selection scenario, using a diffuse prior and increasing its scale parameter asymptotically to infinity, we cannot recover the value of the area under the likelihood, obtained with a uniform improper prior. We first discuss it from a general point of view. Then we provide, as an applicative example, all the details for Bayesian regression models with nonlinear bases, considering two cases: the use of a uniform improper prior and the use of a Gaussian prior, respectively.