<p>Accurately predicting the grinding zone temperature in the dry centerless grinding of high-hardness ceramics is essential for controlling thermal damage, yet it remains challenging due to the absence of coolant and difficulties in the direct measurement. This work proposes a hybrid experimental–numerical approach to overcome these limitations. The specific grinding energy and heat partition ratio are determined through an inverse analysis of temperature and force acquired from dry surface grinding experiments. These calibrated parameters are subsequently applied to develop a three-dimensional transient finite element model for surface grinding. The model demonstrates a good agreement with experimental results, showing a deviation of less than 4%. Furthermore, the validated parameters are used to establish a dry centerless grinding model, systematically analyzing the evolution of the workpiece temperature field and thermal stress under both right triangular and rectangular heat source distributions. The findings reveal that the workpiece maintains a consistent temperature range for two heat sources. Under the right triangular heat source, the workpiece undergoes a rapid temperature rise. While the grinding temperature decreases with the elevated feed rate, the grinding depth exhibits a highly non-monotonic behavior. This study enables the prediction of the transient temperature field and thermal stress in dry grinding processes, provides critical insights for mitigating thermal damage, and enhances the service performance of high-precision ceramic components.</p>