<p>In the production process of hot strip rolling, the on-load roll gap shape of the downstream stand directly affects the strip profile of the finished product and the strip shape control at the end of rolling, including the original roll shape, thermal expansion shape of the roll and wear roll shape. The roll wear mechanism is complex, which is also the key factor to determine the total amount and profile quality of rolled strip during the roll service cycle of hot rolling. The existing roll wear models are data empirical models, and have not yet established a theoretical model that fully considers the influencing factors. This paper proposes a roll wear calculation model suitable for hot rolling mills. The model is based on the fatigue wear theory in the friction and wear principle, the spherical asperity model and the micro-protrusions distribution model based on the statistical model are applied. The model can characterize the force, friction coefficient and contact state of the roll at various points along the strip width. According to the roll characteristics of the four-high rolling mill, the wear models of work rolls and backup rolls were established respectively. On this basis, the roll wear prediction model was established. The established model can accurately predict the amount of roll wear and the wear shape of the roll at any time and predictive error within 5%, which provides a good support for the shape control and process optimization of the roll during the service period.</p>