Scholarlink

<p>Forecasting shifts in urban spatial patterns during the information age is vital for planning future urban development. Utilizing data from 289 prefecture level and above cities in China spanning from 2008 to 2020, we employ the “Broadband China” initiative as a quasi-natural experiment and use a double machine learning approach to determine the effect of digital infrastructure on urban sprawl. We find that digital infrastructure significantly promotes urban sprawl. This finding remains consistent following a range of robustness checks. We analyze the potential mechanisms through which digital infrastructure influences urban sprawl from both the monocentric city model and the polycentric spatial structure perspectives. We find that digital infrastructure promotes urban sprawl not only by increasing resident income and reducing commuting costs but also by fostering decentralization and dispersion. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of digital infrastructure on urban sprawl is more distinct in the eastern regions, large cities, and cities within urban clusters. Further analysis reveals that, compared to transportation infrastructure, digital infrastructure exerts a stronger positive effect on urban sprawl. Our findings provide insights for urban spatial transformation and governance in countries experiencing both an information revolution and urbanization.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Digital infrastructure and urban sprawl: a causal inference based on double machine learning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月16日

查看全文
  • Mufang Xie,
  • Changbiao Zhong,
  • Zhentao Li

摘要

Forecasting shifts in urban spatial patterns during the information age is vital for planning future urban development. Utilizing data from 289 prefecture level and above cities in China spanning from 2008 to 2020, we employ the “Broadband China” initiative as a quasi-natural experiment and use a double machine learning approach to determine the effect of digital infrastructure on urban sprawl. We find that digital infrastructure significantly promotes urban sprawl. This finding remains consistent following a range of robustness checks. We analyze the potential mechanisms through which digital infrastructure influences urban sprawl from both the monocentric city model and the polycentric spatial structure perspectives. We find that digital infrastructure promotes urban sprawl not only by increasing resident income and reducing commuting costs but also by fostering decentralization and dispersion. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of digital infrastructure on urban sprawl is more distinct in the eastern regions, large cities, and cities within urban clusters. Further analysis reveals that, compared to transportation infrastructure, digital infrastructure exerts a stronger positive effect on urban sprawl. Our findings provide insights for urban spatial transformation and governance in countries experiencing both an information revolution and urbanization.