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<p>The increase in depopulated areas has triggered a range of regional issues and has become one of the major demographic challenges facing Japan. This study attempts a new approach to exploring how to increase regional migration. We measures the attractiveness of each municipality in attracting internal migrants, focusing&#xa0;on the characteristics of its relative attractiveness that remain essentially unchanged within the national migration structure. This concept is referred to as the structural stability of regional relative attractiveness. We develop&#xa0;a spatial dynamic model of relative intrinsic attractivity to try to identify substructures that are relatively easier to change within the overall stable structure of regional attractiveness. We utilize regional data from Japan spanning 2012 to 2022 and our empirical findings indicate: the structural stability of relative attractiveness is generally more stable in regions with larger populations and higher effective attractiveness, and the stability primarily&#xa0;stems from the rigid destination choices of migrants aged 10–39; COVID-19 has induced a temporary change, decreasing the attractiveness of central cities, primarily due to migrants aged 20–39, and increasing the attractiveness of regions with small populations but high effective attractiveness, primarily due to those aged 10–29; local central cities can benefit from the growth of attractiveness in neighboring regions across all age groups, but central and non-central cities can only mutually grow in attractiveness in the 0–9 and 40+ age groups, while in 10–39, advantageous conditions will stimulate interregional competition. One policy implication is that local governments, when implementing policies to attract migrants, need to give greater attention to migrants in the 0–9 and 40+ age groups and could consider inter-municipal cooperation.</p>

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Structural stability of regional attractiveness: a case study of Japan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月5日

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  • Qinhua Wu

摘要

The increase in depopulated areas has triggered a range of regional issues and has become one of the major demographic challenges facing Japan. This study attempts a new approach to exploring how to increase regional migration. We measures the attractiveness of each municipality in attracting internal migrants, focusing on the characteristics of its relative attractiveness that remain essentially unchanged within the national migration structure. This concept is referred to as the structural stability of regional relative attractiveness. We develop a spatial dynamic model of relative intrinsic attractivity to try to identify substructures that are relatively easier to change within the overall stable structure of regional attractiveness. We utilize regional data from Japan spanning 2012 to 2022 and our empirical findings indicate: the structural stability of relative attractiveness is generally more stable in regions with larger populations and higher effective attractiveness, and the stability primarily stems from the rigid destination choices of migrants aged 10–39; COVID-19 has induced a temporary change, decreasing the attractiveness of central cities, primarily due to migrants aged 20–39, and increasing the attractiveness of regions with small populations but high effective attractiveness, primarily due to those aged 10–29; local central cities can benefit from the growth of attractiveness in neighboring regions across all age groups, but central and non-central cities can only mutually grow in attractiveness in the 0–9 and 40+ age groups, while in 10–39, advantageous conditions will stimulate interregional competition. One policy implication is that local governments, when implementing policies to attract migrants, need to give greater attention to migrants in the 0–9 and 40+ age groups and could consider inter-municipal cooperation.