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<p>Policy uncertainty has long been regarded as a key driver of investment behavior, technological innovation, and macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper constructs city-level TPU indices by scraping newspaper data from 225 Chinese cities during 2000–2020 and employs a spatial Durbin model to examine both the direct effect of TPU on GTFP and its interregional spillovers. Our empirical findings indicate: (1) High levels of TPU significantly suppress local GTFP but generate a positive spillover effect on neighboring cities, reflecting the coexistence of competition and cooperation in green development among cities; (2) the effect of TPU on GTFP exhibits substantial heterogeneity across provincial boundaries and levels of urban economic development, with spillovers being more pronounced in relatively developed cities and those within the same province; and (3) the influence of TPU is asymmetric with respect to its intensity: While higher TPU exacerbates local constraints on green innovation factors, it simultaneously promotes GTFP in neighboring regions through learning effects and factor reallocation. The novelty of this study lies in two aspects: First, it constructs a city-level TPU index using text-based econometric methods, providing an innovative approach to measuring sub-national policy uncertainty; second, by leveraging a spatial econometric framework, it offers insights into the cross-regional interactions and heterogeneity of TPU’s impact, shedding light on governmental competition, regional collaboration, and the mobility of green innovation resources.</p>

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Tax policy uncertainty and green total factor productivity: a spatial analysis based on prefecture-level city data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月27日

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  • Wei Que,
  • Yanni Yu

摘要

Policy uncertainty has long been regarded as a key driver of investment behavior, technological innovation, and macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper constructs city-level TPU indices by scraping newspaper data from 225 Chinese cities during 2000–2020 and employs a spatial Durbin model to examine both the direct effect of TPU on GTFP and its interregional spillovers. Our empirical findings indicate: (1) High levels of TPU significantly suppress local GTFP but generate a positive spillover effect on neighboring cities, reflecting the coexistence of competition and cooperation in green development among cities; (2) the effect of TPU on GTFP exhibits substantial heterogeneity across provincial boundaries and levels of urban economic development, with spillovers being more pronounced in relatively developed cities and those within the same province; and (3) the influence of TPU is asymmetric with respect to its intensity: While higher TPU exacerbates local constraints on green innovation factors, it simultaneously promotes GTFP in neighboring regions through learning effects and factor reallocation. The novelty of this study lies in two aspects: First, it constructs a city-level TPU index using text-based econometric methods, providing an innovative approach to measuring sub-national policy uncertainty; second, by leveraging a spatial econometric framework, it offers insights into the cross-regional interactions and heterogeneity of TPU’s impact, shedding light on governmental competition, regional collaboration, and the mobility of green innovation resources.