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<p>China’s sudden lifting of zero-COVID controls in December 2022 triggered a nationwide mortality surge. Using verifiable death records of social elites, such as academicians and key political figures, we estimate a conservative lower bound on excess mortality during the exit wave. We find that elite weekly mortality rates rose 5–10-fold in the weeks following the reopening, implying at least 1.44 million excess deaths nationally. Nevertheless, further analysis reveals that China’s total mortality cost during the entire pandemic remains low relative to comparable countries, as COVID-19 was largely under control from 2020 to 2022. The deaths of social elites highlight the pandemic’s reach across all societal strata and have far-reaching impacts on society. Using academia as an example, we demonstrate that while the deaths of academicians result in significant losses of valuable expertise, those deaths enhance academic upward mobility and accelerate generational turnover. Our findings underscore the need for better preparedness in future public health emergencies.</p>

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Social elites as sentinels: estimating national excess mortality of China’s sudden COVID-19 reopening

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月1日

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  • Guojun He,
  • Shuo Li,
  • Yucheng Quan

摘要

China’s sudden lifting of zero-COVID controls in December 2022 triggered a nationwide mortality surge. Using verifiable death records of social elites, such as academicians and key political figures, we estimate a conservative lower bound on excess mortality during the exit wave. We find that elite weekly mortality rates rose 5–10-fold in the weeks following the reopening, implying at least 1.44 million excess deaths nationally. Nevertheless, further analysis reveals that China’s total mortality cost during the entire pandemic remains low relative to comparable countries, as COVID-19 was largely under control from 2020 to 2022. The deaths of social elites highlight the pandemic’s reach across all societal strata and have far-reaching impacts on society. Using academia as an example, we demonstrate that while the deaths of academicians result in significant losses of valuable expertise, those deaths enhance academic upward mobility and accelerate generational turnover. Our findings underscore the need for better preparedness in future public health emergencies.