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Background <p>Depression, loneliness and other psychological distress symptoms are common in the US; lifetime cumulative estimates and life course prospective persistence is under-studied. We use national data with repeated assessment to provide lifetime cumulative risk estimates for the US.</p> Methods <p>Longitudinal data from Monitoring the Future panel study on individuals (<i>N</i> = 421) followed from age 18 (in 1976–1978) to age 60 (in 2018–2020), with mean = 12.4 assessments (range 5–13). Psychological distress included three subscales: loneliness (2 items), low self-esteem (4 items), depressive symptoms (4 items).</p> Results <p>By age 60, 73.91% had <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:\ge\:\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>1 period of high loneliness; 24.84% had 3+ periods of high loneliness. A total of 65.72% had <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:\ge\:\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>1 period of low self-esteem. Most risk accumulated during early adulthood; 56.40% had high loneliness and 46.38% had low self-esteem by age 25/26. Those with high loneliness at age 18 had 3.72 (95% C.I. 2.09, 6.63) times the odds of high loneliness, 4.28 (95% C.I. 2.10, 8.71) times the odds of high depressive symptoms, and 2.61 (95% C.I. 1.47, 4.65) times the odds of low self-esteem at age 60. Associations were of similar magnitude for age 18 low self-esteem predicting age 60 distress.</p> Conclusion <p>By age 60, most US adults will have experienced at least 1 period of high loneliness or low self-esteem, and the majority of risk accumulates early in adulthood. Adolescent distress prospectively predicts later life distress, thus intervention and prevention efforts in adolescence are potentially critical for addressing late life mental health problems.</p>

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Persistence of loneliness and low self-esteem from adolescence through age 60 in the United States: results from the Monitoring the Future Panel Study

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月29日

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  • Katherine M. Keyes,
  • Victoria Joseph,
  • Justin Jager,
  • Mark Olfson,
  • Megan E. Patrick

摘要

Background

Depression, loneliness and other psychological distress symptoms are common in the US; lifetime cumulative estimates and life course prospective persistence is under-studied. We use national data with repeated assessment to provide lifetime cumulative risk estimates for the US.

Methods

Longitudinal data from Monitoring the Future panel study on individuals (N = 421) followed from age 18 (in 1976–1978) to age 60 (in 2018–2020), with mean = 12.4 assessments (range 5–13). Psychological distress included three subscales: loneliness (2 items), low self-esteem (4 items), depressive symptoms (4 items).

Results

By age 60, 73.91% had \(\:\ge\:\) 1 period of high loneliness; 24.84% had 3+ periods of high loneliness. A total of 65.72% had \(\:\ge\:\) 1 period of low self-esteem. Most risk accumulated during early adulthood; 56.40% had high loneliness and 46.38% had low self-esteem by age 25/26. Those with high loneliness at age 18 had 3.72 (95% C.I. 2.09, 6.63) times the odds of high loneliness, 4.28 (95% C.I. 2.10, 8.71) times the odds of high depressive symptoms, and 2.61 (95% C.I. 1.47, 4.65) times the odds of low self-esteem at age 60. Associations were of similar magnitude for age 18 low self-esteem predicting age 60 distress.

Conclusion

By age 60, most US adults will have experienced at least 1 period of high loneliness or low self-esteem, and the majority of risk accumulates early in adulthood. Adolescent distress prospectively predicts later life distress, thus intervention and prevention efforts in adolescence are potentially critical for addressing late life mental health problems.