<p>This study examined the influence of climatic factors on the distribution of Jerdon’s Babbler (<i>Chrysomma altirostre</i>), a Vulnerable grassland bird with a highly restricted range in the riverine alluvial grasslands of South Asia. Focusing on Northeast India, species distribution models were developed to assess current suitability patterns and projected changes under future climate scenarios for 2060 (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5). Species distribution modelling was conducted using 21 environmental predictors, including 19 bioclimatic variables, elevation, land use/land cover, and population density. An ensemble modelling framework combining MaxEnt, Random Forest, and Generalised Linear Model was employed to enhance predictive performance. Model outputs identified Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1), Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and elevation as the most influential predictors of habitat suitability. Projections under future climate scenarios indicated a substantial contraction of suitable areas, particularly in regions experiencing increased temperature variability and elevational constraints. The current Land Cover, Climate and Anthropogenic Induced (LCCAI) model showed high accuracy, with a mean AUC of 0.89 across all algorithms. Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1), Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and elevation emerged as the most influential predictors of habitat suitability. Future climate scenarios indicate a substantial contraction of suitable areas, particularly in regions experiencing greater temperature extremes and elevation-related variability. Given the species’ already fragmented and narrow distribution within the Brahmaputra Valley, these projected losses represent a serious conservation concern. Overall, the findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine grassland specialists to climate change and the urgent need for targeted habitat management and conservation strategies for grassland birds across South Asia.</p>