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<p>The coastal regions of India are highly vulnerable to storm surge flooding during tropical cyclones. On 22 October 2024, at 05:30 IST, a severe cyclonic storm named Dana formed in the Bay of Bengal. It made landfall between 01:30 and 02:30 IST on 25 October 2024, with wind gusts reaching 120&#xa0;km/h at Bhitarkanika and Dhamra ports in Odisha. Cyclone Dana caused heavy rainfall, strong winds, and inundation in low-lying areas of Kendrapara, Bhadrak, and Balasore districts, resulting in significant damage and disruption across Odisha and West Bengal. Approximately 500,000 people were evacuated from coastal Odisha by the National Disaster Response Force. The current study evaluates the performance of the Storm Surge Early Warning Centre at the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services during Cyclone Dana. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model was forced with Holland parametric wind fields derived from 24-h and 48-h India Meteorological Department forecast tracks and compared against the best track. Atmospheric forcing was validated using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar winds and in-situ observations from the Ocean Moored Buoy Network for the Northern Indian Ocean. Simulated surge heights were validated against tide gauge records from Dhamra and Paradip, while inundation extents were compared with Sentinel-1 flood maps. Results indicate that the 24-h forecast accurately reproduced wind fields, surge heights, and inundation extents, whereas the 48-h forecast underestimated the intensity and spatial coverage. Although best-track simulations provide the most accurate results, real-time 24–48-h forecasts remain valuable for early warning and risk reduction. Future improvements will focus on incorporating river discharge, rainfall inputs, and land-use information to enhance forecast reliability.</p>

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Real-Time Storm Surge Forecast and Its Validation for Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Dana’

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月27日

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  • Siva Srinivas Kolukula,
  • P. L. N. Murty,
  • J. Padmanabham,
  • V. Chandrasekhar,
  • Monica Sharma,
  • M. Mohapatra,
  • T. M. Balakrishnan Nair

摘要

The coastal regions of India are highly vulnerable to storm surge flooding during tropical cyclones. On 22 October 2024, at 05:30 IST, a severe cyclonic storm named Dana formed in the Bay of Bengal. It made landfall between 01:30 and 02:30 IST on 25 October 2024, with wind gusts reaching 120 km/h at Bhitarkanika and Dhamra ports in Odisha. Cyclone Dana caused heavy rainfall, strong winds, and inundation in low-lying areas of Kendrapara, Bhadrak, and Balasore districts, resulting in significant damage and disruption across Odisha and West Bengal. Approximately 500,000 people were evacuated from coastal Odisha by the National Disaster Response Force. The current study evaluates the performance of the Storm Surge Early Warning Centre at the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services during Cyclone Dana. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model was forced with Holland parametric wind fields derived from 24-h and 48-h India Meteorological Department forecast tracks and compared against the best track. Atmospheric forcing was validated using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar winds and in-situ observations from the Ocean Moored Buoy Network for the Northern Indian Ocean. Simulated surge heights were validated against tide gauge records from Dhamra and Paradip, while inundation extents were compared with Sentinel-1 flood maps. Results indicate that the 24-h forecast accurately reproduced wind fields, surge heights, and inundation extents, whereas the 48-h forecast underestimated the intensity and spatial coverage. Although best-track simulations provide the most accurate results, real-time 24–48-h forecasts remain valuable for early warning and risk reduction. Future improvements will focus on incorporating river discharge, rainfall inputs, and land-use information to enhance forecast reliability.