In response to the impacts of climate change on rainfed agriculture, this study evaluates interannual variability in dekadal rainfall and monthly temperatures during the tropical spring season (March, April, and May/MAM) to understand their effect on coffee habitat altitudinal ranges in southern Ethiopia. The Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS) monthly air temperatures (1983–20,216) and the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS-v3) dekadal rainfall (1981–2025) were used as the primary data sources for this study. CHIRTS minimum (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) were extracted from seven representative sites for trend analysis. Then, the modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK) for temperature trends, coefficient of variation (CV) for rainfall variability, and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for spatiotemporal drought assessment were applied. Furthermore, a key informant interview (KII) and field observation were employed to collect qualitative data. The study revealed a general upward trend in CHIRTS Tmin and Tmax during the spring season (MAM) across all sites (stations), although statistical significance varied among sites. Regardless of elevation differences, more than 85% of the upward trends in Tmax and Tmin in April and May were statistically significant (α < 0.05), while only Tmin underwent significant trends in March across the sites. Specifically, the significant rising trends in Tmax and Tmin were 0.033–0.051 °C/year and 0.041–0.075 °C/year, equivalent to 1.12–1.73 °C and 1.39–2.55 °C, respectively, over three decades during the study period (1983–2016). Moreover, the study revealed high CVs for dekadal rainfall (31–96%) and recurrent drought events, with more frequent droughts in March and more severe ones in April. The implications of the pronounced fluctuations in spring rainfall and rising temperatures on coffee production cannot be overlooked. Consequently, as we verified through field observations and key informant interviews, producers in the lower altitudinal belts have begun replacing coffee with other crops. In contrast, coffee cover has recently expanded into new, higher-elevation areas in response to promising productivity. Therefore, given the rising temperatures and recurrent meteorological droughts observed during the study period, as well as the ongoing replacement of coffee with other crops, climate adaptation efforts should focus on developing stress-tolerant coffee varieties and expanding shade tree cover to prevent the potential retreat of coffee habitats at lower altitudes.

Impacts of Rainfall and Temperature Variabilities on Coffee Habitat Altitudinal Ranges in Southern Ethiopia

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发表日期：

2026年7月27日

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Birhane Gebrehiwot Tesfamariam,
Alemu Dessa Derebe,
Wondifraw Nigussie

摘要

In response to the impacts of climate change on rainfed agriculture, this study evaluates interannual variability in dekadal rainfall and monthly temperatures during the tropical spring season (March, April, and May/MAM) to understand their effect on coffee habitat altitudinal ranges in southern Ethiopia. The Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS) monthly air temperatures (1983–20,216) and the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS-v3) dekadal rainfall (1981–2025) were used as the primary data sources for this study. CHIRTS minimum (T_min) and maximum temperature (T_max) were extracted from seven representative sites for trend analysis. Then, the modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK) for temperature trends, coefficient of variation (CV) for rainfall variability, and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for spatiotemporal drought assessment were applied. Furthermore, a key informant interview (KII) and field observation were employed to collect qualitative data. The study revealed a general upward trend in CHIRTS T_min and T_max during the spring season (MAM) across all sites (stations), although statistical significance varied among sites. Regardless of elevation differences, more than 85% of the upward trends in T_max and T_min in April and May were statistically significant (α < 0.05), while only T_min underwent significant trends in March across the sites. Specifically, the significant rising trends in T_max and T_min were 0.033–0.051 °C/year and 0.041–0.075 °C/year, equivalent to 1.12–1.73 °C and 1.39–2.55 °C, respectively, over three decades during the study period (1983–2016). Moreover, the study revealed high CVs for dekadal rainfall (31–96%) and recurrent drought events, with more frequent droughts in March and more severe ones in April. The implications of the pronounced fluctuations in spring rainfall and rising temperatures on coffee production cannot be overlooked. Consequently, as we verified through field observations and key informant interviews, producers in the lower altitudinal belts have begun replacing coffee with other crops. In contrast, coffee cover has recently expanded into new, higher-elevation areas in response to promising productivity. Therefore, given the rising temperatures and recurrent meteorological droughts observed during the study period, as well as the ongoing replacement of coffee with other crops, climate adaptation efforts should focus on developing stress-tolerant coffee varieties and expanding shade tree cover to prevent the potential retreat of coffee habitats at lower altitudes.