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<p>The distribution and amount of rainfall are essential in determining the onset of drought in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Pakistan. Based on precipitation records (1980–2016) from 19 stations, the study assessed the spatial and temporal variations of short-, medium-, and long-term droughts at 3, 6, and 12-month scales, utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and runs theory. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) method was employed to assess patterns in drought trends. Moreover, the SPI was analyzed comparatively across diverse time scales. The study exhibited that (1) The dominant drought category was moderate, occurring repeatedly in July and October; (2) The intensity of the drought reached its peak in 2001, with both severity and duration being more pronounced in the northwest compared to the southeast; (3) An upward pattern in short drought occurrences emerged, predominantly during the winter and fall seasons; medium droughts increased notably in 1999, while prolonged droughts were more evident in the whole region of UIB; (4) SPI-3 reflect three months accumulated precipitation effectively, SPI-6 excels in tracking the persistence of drought conditions, while SPI-12 is designed to capture extreme drought events; (5) The findings demonstrated that the distribution of rainfall had a significant impact on drought zones within the basin, as drought conditions evolved throughout the seasons based on the amount and spatial variation of precipitation.</p>

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Investigation of Precipitation Patterns and Their Impact on Drought Variability in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Arif Hussain,
  • Jianxia Chang,
  • Azfar Hussain,
  • Zhou Kai,
  • Guibin Yang,
  • Lu Zhang

摘要

The distribution and amount of rainfall are essential in determining the onset of drought in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Pakistan. Based on precipitation records (1980–2016) from 19 stations, the study assessed the spatial and temporal variations of short-, medium-, and long-term droughts at 3, 6, and 12-month scales, utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and runs theory. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) method was employed to assess patterns in drought trends. Moreover, the SPI was analyzed comparatively across diverse time scales. The study exhibited that (1) The dominant drought category was moderate, occurring repeatedly in July and October; (2) The intensity of the drought reached its peak in 2001, with both severity and duration being more pronounced in the northwest compared to the southeast; (3) An upward pattern in short drought occurrences emerged, predominantly during the winter and fall seasons; medium droughts increased notably in 1999, while prolonged droughts were more evident in the whole region of UIB; (4) SPI-3 reflect three months accumulated precipitation effectively, SPI-6 excels in tracking the persistence of drought conditions, while SPI-12 is designed to capture extreme drought events; (5) The findings demonstrated that the distribution of rainfall had a significant impact on drought zones within the basin, as drought conditions evolved throughout the seasons based on the amount and spatial variation of precipitation.