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<p>In this paper a case study has been presented to investigate the dynamical aspects of movement and intensification of Cyclone MOCHA (Bay of Bengal, May 2023) using non-conventional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products: differential vorticity advection (DVA), differential thermal advection (DTA), differential moisture advection (DMA), net vertically integrated horizontal divergence (NVIHD), and vertically integrated moist static energy (VIMSE). Employing ECMWF ReAnalysis ERA5 data at 6-hourly intervals, we analysed these parameters and their lag correlations with the Genesis Potential Parameter and maximum sustainable winds to elucidate their roles in cyclogenesis and track evolution. Results indicate that DTA, DVA, and DMA provide 6–12-h lead times for intensity changes in Cyclone MOCHA, with DTA exhibiting the strongest correlation peaking 8–12&#xa0;h prior to Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) increases, signalling early cyclogenesis in this case. DMA transitions from negative to positive correlation post-genesis, reflecting moisture reorganization, while NVIHD’s persistent negative correlation highlights the useful role of atmospheric column convergence in cyclone development. VIMSE demonstrates a robust 0.87 correlation with intensification 36&#xa0;h in advance for this particular event, and NVIHD patterns align with MOCHA’s observed north-eastward track. The sequential dynamics observed in MOCHA—DTA initiating cyclogenesis, followed by moisture and vorticity adjustments—align with theoretical models of cyclone formation. These findings illustrate the diagnostic potential of these NWP products for understanding lead times and mechanistic processes in this case, with insights that could inform future applications in operational frameworks pending multi-case validation.</p>

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A Study on the Dynamical Aspects of Movement and Intensification of Intense Cyclonic Vortex: A Case Study of Cyclone MOCHA

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月30日

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  • Pallavi Prabhu,
  • Somenath Dutta,
  • Raja Boragapu,
  • Pushpa Saroja,
  • Somnath Mahato

摘要

In this paper a case study has been presented to investigate the dynamical aspects of movement and intensification of Cyclone MOCHA (Bay of Bengal, May 2023) using non-conventional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products: differential vorticity advection (DVA), differential thermal advection (DTA), differential moisture advection (DMA), net vertically integrated horizontal divergence (NVIHD), and vertically integrated moist static energy (VIMSE). Employing ECMWF ReAnalysis ERA5 data at 6-hourly intervals, we analysed these parameters and their lag correlations with the Genesis Potential Parameter and maximum sustainable winds to elucidate their roles in cyclogenesis and track evolution. Results indicate that DTA, DVA, and DMA provide 6–12-h lead times for intensity changes in Cyclone MOCHA, with DTA exhibiting the strongest correlation peaking 8–12 h prior to Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) increases, signalling early cyclogenesis in this case. DMA transitions from negative to positive correlation post-genesis, reflecting moisture reorganization, while NVIHD’s persistent negative correlation highlights the useful role of atmospheric column convergence in cyclone development. VIMSE demonstrates a robust 0.87 correlation with intensification 36 h in advance for this particular event, and NVIHD patterns align with MOCHA’s observed north-eastward track. The sequential dynamics observed in MOCHA—DTA initiating cyclogenesis, followed by moisture and vorticity adjustments—align with theoretical models of cyclone formation. These findings illustrate the diagnostic potential of these NWP products for understanding lead times and mechanistic processes in this case, with insights that could inform future applications in operational frameworks pending multi-case validation.