Future Typhoon Intensities Affecting Nuclear Power Plants in Korea Under Climate Change Scenarios
摘要
A global increase in sea surface temperature (SST) is anticipated under a warming climate, thus implying that natural hazards associated with SST, such as typhoons are projected to pose greater risks, particularly to nuclear power plants in Korea. Due to their limitations in both spatial and temporal resolutions, existing climate models remain posing challenges in quantifying the strength of typhoons approaching the Korean Peninsula (KP). This study investigated how changes in the future environment can influence the intensity of typhoons approaching Korea. Using the statistical approach, we estimated the location and strength of the future Lifetime Maximum Intensity (LMI) of typhoons based on the environment-derived Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Along with other environmental factors such as SST and vertical wind shear, we propose a multilinear regression model to predict the rate of change in intensity of typhoons approaching the nuclear power plants. Our result shows that under the different climate change scenarios, the maximum intensities of typhoons approaching KP can increase from 5.36% in SSP126 to 15.17% in SSP585. Furthermore, the maximum typhoon intensities in the four major nuclear power plants in Korea namely, Gori, Wolsong, Hanul, and Hanbit are projected to face an increase of up to 16.36%, 16.36%, 17.48%, and 16.23% from their present values under the SSP585 scenario, respectively. Considering the risk of typhoons to the said power plants, our study can serve as an input for mitigating the potential damages and impacts of typhoons on the future operations of these power plants.