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<p>Due to the increase in the severity and frequency of cold and heat waves, climate change exacerbates the seasonal or diurnal exposure of humans to heat or cold stress. Human thermal comfort (HTC) is an interdisciplinary spatial concern playing a pivotal role in directly influencing public health and well-being. This paper focuses on assessing the bioclimatic conditions of outdoor environments through the use of bioclimatic indices that characterize human comfort in relation to the thermal environment. Specifically, Thom's Discomfort Index (DI) and the Effective Temperature-Taking Wind Velocity (ETv) indices were used to simulate the climate change scenarios. The objective of the study is to assess the spatial and seasonal changes in temperature, relative humidity, and bioclimatic comfort zones in Erzurum, one of the coldest cities in Turkey by conducting assessments under two IPCC scenarios: SSP 245 and SSP 585. The bioclimatic comfort zones and their short- and long-term changes were modelled using ArcGIS 10.7 software. At present situation, 70.18% of Erzurum province is classified in comfortable zone in summer; however, SSP 585 projects a shift to hot zone at a rate of 91.54% by 2100. Conversely, the ET<i>v</i> index suggests a reduced risk of extreme cold but an increase in the rate of cold zones in winter. By 2100, SSP 245 predicts 29.28% increase in cold zones, while SSP 585 predicts 83.84%. The impact of geographical structure on the seasonal warming and cooling in the zones is noteworthy. The modelling framework and results are critical for shaping national and local health and climate policies. They also help to predict the impact of cold and heat under future climatic and socio-economic scenarios.</p>

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Future Changes in the Spatial Distribution of Human Thermal Comfort Conditions in the Case of a Cold Climate Province, Erzurum, Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月15日

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  • Neslihan Demircan,
  • Cansu Güller,
  • Süleyman Toy

摘要

Due to the increase in the severity and frequency of cold and heat waves, climate change exacerbates the seasonal or diurnal exposure of humans to heat or cold stress. Human thermal comfort (HTC) is an interdisciplinary spatial concern playing a pivotal role in directly influencing public health and well-being. This paper focuses on assessing the bioclimatic conditions of outdoor environments through the use of bioclimatic indices that characterize human comfort in relation to the thermal environment. Specifically, Thom's Discomfort Index (DI) and the Effective Temperature-Taking Wind Velocity (ETv) indices were used to simulate the climate change scenarios. The objective of the study is to assess the spatial and seasonal changes in temperature, relative humidity, and bioclimatic comfort zones in Erzurum, one of the coldest cities in Turkey by conducting assessments under two IPCC scenarios: SSP 245 and SSP 585. The bioclimatic comfort zones and their short- and long-term changes were modelled using ArcGIS 10.7 software. At present situation, 70.18% of Erzurum province is classified in comfortable zone in summer; however, SSP 585 projects a shift to hot zone at a rate of 91.54% by 2100. Conversely, the ETv index suggests a reduced risk of extreme cold but an increase in the rate of cold zones in winter. By 2100, SSP 245 predicts 29.28% increase in cold zones, while SSP 585 predicts 83.84%. The impact of geographical structure on the seasonal warming and cooling in the zones is noteworthy. The modelling framework and results are critical for shaping national and local health and climate policies. They also help to predict the impact of cold and heat under future climatic and socio-economic scenarios.