Scholarlink

<p>This study enhances thunderstorm prediction accuracy by integrating the Hallett-Mossop (HM) secondary ice production mechanism into a coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with an electrification module. The WRF-ARW model was configured with a 2&#xa0;km convection-permitting grid and the Thompson-Eidhammer two-moment microphysics scheme, explicitly resolving deep convective updrafts over Central Russia during the 2021 convective season (May 15–August 31). The HM mechanism, active at temperatures between −8&#xa0;°C and −3&#xa0;°C, increases ice crystal number concentration (m<sup>−3</sup>), amplifying volume charge density (nC/m<sup>3</sup>) via collisional fragmentation. Validated against multi-source lightning data (WWLLN, TLN, MGO, VGI), the HM-enhanced model outperforms traditional non-inductive/inductive schemes, increasing thunderstorm detection accuracy (Probability of Detection) by 16% and reducing false alarms by 13%. Coupling HM with the Tiedtke (Monthly Weather Review 117(8): 1779–1800, 1989) convection parameterization at 6&#xa0;km resolution confirms robustness, but the 2&#xa0;km configuration achieves the highest skill scores (Gilbert criterion = 59%, Bagrov-Heidke criterion = 0.39). This framework advances short-term thunderstorm forecasts, with applications in aviation safety, energy infrastructure protection, and disaster preparedness.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

The Influence of Secondary Ice Crystal Release on the Electrical Structure of Convective Clouds and the Quality of Thunderstorm Forecasting

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月13日

查看全文
  • Inna M. Gubenko

摘要

This study enhances thunderstorm prediction accuracy by integrating the Hallett-Mossop (HM) secondary ice production mechanism into a coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with an electrification module. The WRF-ARW model was configured with a 2 km convection-permitting grid and the Thompson-Eidhammer two-moment microphysics scheme, explicitly resolving deep convective updrafts over Central Russia during the 2021 convective season (May 15–August 31). The HM mechanism, active at temperatures between −8 °C and −3 °C, increases ice crystal number concentration (m−3), amplifying volume charge density (nC/m3) via collisional fragmentation. Validated against multi-source lightning data (WWLLN, TLN, MGO, VGI), the HM-enhanced model outperforms traditional non-inductive/inductive schemes, increasing thunderstorm detection accuracy (Probability of Detection) by 16% and reducing false alarms by 13%. Coupling HM with the Tiedtke (Monthly Weather Review 117(8): 1779–1800, 1989) convection parameterization at 6 km resolution confirms robustness, but the 2 km configuration achieves the highest skill scores (Gilbert criterion = 59%, Bagrov-Heidke criterion = 0.39). This framework advances short-term thunderstorm forecasts, with applications in aviation safety, energy infrastructure protection, and disaster preparedness.