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<p>This study classifies synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns associated with hailstorms in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) using observational hail data (2010–2018) and multivariate statistical methods. Principal Component Analysis and k-means clustering identified four distinct regimes: (1) Summer Monsoonal Ridge-Trough (60.6% of hail days), characterized by a weak 500-hPa trough over northern DPR Korea, warm advection at 850&#xa0;hPa, and high convective instability (CAPE &gt; 1460&#xa0;J&#xa0;kg<sup>−1</sup>, lapse rate 26&#xa0;K); (2) Autumn Cold Frontal (7.7%), driven by Siberian cold-air incursions and moderate CAPE (~ 1160&#xa0;J&#xa0;kg<sup>−1</sup>); (3) Spring Closed Low (16.6%), marked by a cyclonic low over northeast China and orographically enhanced uplift in northern highlands; and (4) Spring–Autumn Shortwave Trough (15.1%), featuring mobile mid-level troughs and frontal convergence. Discriminant Analysis validated the classification (93.4% accuracy), with key predictors including 500-hPa geopotential height and 850-hPa temperature loadings. Topography critically modulated hail genesis, amplifying updrafts in mountainous regions despite weaker synoptic forcing. These findings provide actionable insights for forecasting, emphasizing CAPE thresholds (&gt; 1500&#xa0;J&#xa0;kg<sup>−1</sup>) and ridge-trough interactions as precursors to severe hail. The study establishes a transferable framework for hail prediction in topographically complex regions, addressing a critical gap in East Asian climatological research.</p>

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Synoptic Patterns Associated with the Hail Events over the DPR Korea

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月26日

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  • Kum-Ryong Jo,
  • Jong-Chol Ri,
  • Hyok-Chol Kim,
  • Song-Nam Ri,
  • Tong-Ju Ho,
  • Chung-Il Jon

摘要

This study classifies synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns associated with hailstorms in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) using observational hail data (2010–2018) and multivariate statistical methods. Principal Component Analysis and k-means clustering identified four distinct regimes: (1) Summer Monsoonal Ridge-Trough (60.6% of hail days), characterized by a weak 500-hPa trough over northern DPR Korea, warm advection at 850 hPa, and high convective instability (CAPE > 1460 J kg−1, lapse rate 26 K); (2) Autumn Cold Frontal (7.7%), driven by Siberian cold-air incursions and moderate CAPE (~ 1160 J kg−1); (3) Spring Closed Low (16.6%), marked by a cyclonic low over northeast China and orographically enhanced uplift in northern highlands; and (4) Spring–Autumn Shortwave Trough (15.1%), featuring mobile mid-level troughs and frontal convergence. Discriminant Analysis validated the classification (93.4% accuracy), with key predictors including 500-hPa geopotential height and 850-hPa temperature loadings. Topography critically modulated hail genesis, amplifying updrafts in mountainous regions despite weaker synoptic forcing. These findings provide actionable insights for forecasting, emphasizing CAPE thresholds (> 1500 J kg−1) and ridge-trough interactions as precursors to severe hail. The study establishes a transferable framework for hail prediction in topographically complex regions, addressing a critical gap in East Asian climatological research.